Introduction

The “Business Manager” status of residence is essential for foreign nationals wishing to establish and manage a company in Japan. A well-prepared business plan is fundamental to the application process, as it must demonstrate the business’s continuity and stability in a concrete and rational manner. When the sales forecast in your business plan is judged unrealistically optimistic, you may be asked for additional evidence or simulations. This article provides proven methods for presenting sales forecasts credibly, using public authority rules and official guidelines.

Role of the Business Plan in Business Manager Visa Applications

Unlike plans for obtaining investment or loans, a business plan for the Business Manager Visa aims to prove eligibility and stability to immigration authorities. According to official information from the Immigration Services Agency, important requirements include:

• Proper operation according to laws
• Secure capital and business scale
• Physical business premises within Japan
• Managerial experience and proper remuneration

The continuity and stability of the business is evaluated based on factors like sales, profit margins, number of employees, and the status of facilities—not simply capital size.

Common Issues in Unrealistic Sales Forecasts

If sales predictions lack sufficient rationale and appear unrealistic, your application may be rejected. Typical problems include:

• Insufficient market research or competitive analysis
• Lack of comparison with similar businesses
• Overstated revenues relative to actual resources

The business plan must explain not only sales but also initial funding, expenses, depreciation, insurance, taxes, and overall feasibility.

Practical Ways to Make Sales Forecasts More Realistic

1. Detailed Market Research and Competitive Analysis

Include objective market data and benchmarks of similar businesses when explaining your sales estimates.

Example

“There are five competing outlets near ○○ Station, with average monthly sales of about XX yen. Based on our differentiated products and pricing, we estimate sales of YY yen.”

2. Revenue Forecast Rationale

Use proven formulas—expected customer count × unit price × frequency—to illustrate the logic behind your projections.

Example

“Our lunch crowd averages 30 customers per day, with a unit price of ¥1,000, leading to projected monthly revenues of ¥900,000.”

3. Conservative and Downward Revision Simulations

Show risk hedging by including simulations for possible revenue decreases due to market conditions or competition.

Example

“Even if revenue drops by 20% due to competition, our cash flow remains healthy and the business remains sustainable.”

4. Attach External Expert Calculations

Supplement your documentation by including financial projections prepared by accountants or certified consultants.

Case Example

Mr. A from China (40 years old, single) plans to open a Vietnamese restaurant in Tokyo. His initial business plan set monthly sales at ¥2,000,000, but immigration authorities found this unrealistic. Mr. A responded by:

• Surveying seven similar local restaurants and revising the average down to ¥1,500,000
• Presenting concrete evidence for customer spending, turnover, and seasonal variation
• Including simulations for both success and losses
• Requesting a financial projection from a local commercial association and business consultant

These improvements increased the business plan’s credibility, leading to successful authorization.

Notes for Preparing Your Business Plan

• Always reference official sources for objectivity
• Use fictitious names and profiles for privacy
• Visualize both positive forecasts and risks
• Aim for a concise, approximately 2,000-character statement, enhancing clarity with charts or photos if possible

Conclusion

When your business plan’s sales forecast is challenged as unrealistic during a Business Manager Visa application, adding objective evidence, market research, and risk simulations is essential to demonstrate viability and continuity. Relying on expert estimations and official information will maximize persuasiveness. Always ensure your documentation aligns with government guidelines and aims for error-free, credible submissions.